multcoin◱ ◱ (@multcoin) • Hey
Multcoin Capital is invests in cryptocurrencies, tokens, We manage a hedge fund and a venture fund, investing across both public and private markets.
Publications
- The intellectually honest way to measure gas prices is as follows
1) average USD-price on a rolling 30-day period
2) frequency of spikes where gas price is 2x the rolling 30-day average
- Huge step forward for science
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/science/elephant-stem-cells-woolly-mammoth.html
- You can verify a cast in a solana contract (but not in EVM, since EVM cannot verify ed25519 sig)
So that means you can use a cast as an input to trigger actions on SVM
Farcaster launching Solana support this week
Whatchya gonna build?
- huge opportunity to build the next generation of game engines
lmk if you know people who are building this!
- I see a lot of discussion about Bitcoin L2s coming in 2024 in the wake of ordinals/inscriptions and BitVM
But I am not aware of any even theoretically proposed framework to create trust-minimized bridges for BTC (either optimistic or zk-flavored)
Given that, what's the difference between Bitcoin sidechains (fka Bitcoin L2s) and WBTC?
- Just have to be uncomfortable being an ETH maxi. Absolutely rugged from both angles.
Store of value thesis destroyed by Bitcoin ordinals fixing Bitcoin's security budget. Bitcoin wins.
Smart contract/value transfer destroyed by literally instant and free transactions from chad anatoly building superior tech while chuckling like a harmless friendly boy.
Maybe a bottom signal. But I don't think so.
- Is there going to be a an official F1 licensed racing sim for Apple Vision Pro?
- This was a very fun podcast
Dove deep into L1 philosophies, the opportunity for shit posting and trading as a primitive, filecoin, and more
youtu.be/L3bSpAQvkCU
- For all of you building credit/under collateralized lending products
- Attention artists! We're teaming up with @lensprotocol.lens to award fellowships through a worldwide open call to the digital art community.⚡️
12 artists will get the funded to create new work and learn how to best use this amazing platform to release their art 🎨
Interested? Click on “Artists By Refraction” to join (if you haven’t already) and fill out the application here:
https://refraction.typeform.com/to/gqB8zm2n
- Global system throughput is definitively network bound
Each year, throughput will increase, *even without validators upgrading hardware or software*
- The absolute OG read on the intersection of AI and crypto
Years ahead of everyone else on his thinking
https://blog.oceanprotocol.com/ai-daos-series2-3876510d6eb4?gi=558ce04cc93f
- Stack to build decentralized social after Lens V2
- mIRC on Lens would be cool. All rooms token gated + commands like /kick @user /join #Ethereum /mute and so on. All communities can set their own rules
- Devs, this technical migration guide is your companion through the transition to Lens V2.
Users, there's no action needed on your part to enjoy V2.
https://mirror.xyz/0xC864254F60524BD59fC865B107492Ddd76f7FD4E/3iQKjiAUgldieEvcdRGlyNdj4sp-3WFlL7GuOLc-cwM
- Filecoin is extraordinarily technically ambitious, and as a consequence, generally misunderstood
- This thread below offers a view on why the media had so much difficulty with the news yesterday compared to the way online worked. It is an important perspective that I wanted to build upon.
It should not come as a surprise that the "competitor" to the media yesterday is also called "open source". OS News has all the properties of "open source" that we are familiar with from software. That means all the benefits.
It also means all of the negatives as viewed by incumbents. Much like proprietary software, the flagship media outlets view news gathering through the lens of proprietary source, only in this case the source generally means access to people, information, data that is not available to laypeople.
Since the post-Watergate era reporting has meant knocking on doors, cold calling, and most of all having relationships with established sources and experts on topics.
Conversely, these established sources and experts rely on these relationships to spoon out information and views in an effort to shape a narrative. This is a routine/process/game that has only become more institutionalized.
And those sources cold-called, much like people who did not have access to reusable code they were wildly mismatched with relative to the professionals. That is why so often these people inadvertently shaped a narrative that later proved to have problems.
In the past before open source, stories would run, information would be provided by "sources close to" whatever was happening in the world, and then that was the established narrative.
In today's world it is not just that everyone anywhere can post their thoughts, personal experiences, videos/photos, or anything that may or may not contribute. It is also that there is a community of people willing to test the veracity of that information. And then there is a community willing to compare the results of those tests and so on. It becomes essentially impossible for the news to be defined by a private conversation between a "well-placed source" and a reporter.
This reality extends even further to the vast array of sensors from satellite imagery to maps, witness recordings, historical information and records, and an incredible collection of data sources—many provided by the government itself. These sources provide more inputs to a wide-ranging community testing the validity of stories.
Finally add to this that often there are true experts on events that are no longer bound by organizations involved who are willing to lend their opinions.
It isn't simply the domain knowledge or access to the data, but the checks and balances, and the debate (vigorous as it is) across all those bits and pieces. And it is also the speed at which that system works. The participants are available around the clock, in every language, in every time zone. No newsroom has that no matter how big.
An example comparison is the world of securing and maintaining software systems. By now most in the industry know that security vulnerabilities are discovered and understood far more quickly outside the makers of those products than inside their own organizations. The information to identify, defend, and correct these problems—whether proprietary software or not—exceed that of the companies themselves. This promise of open-source software has held true from the early days. It is why the old school of keeping close to the vest in this space has so totally failed for vendors—this aspect of the proprietary model no longer works. It has been disruptive.
Events like yesterday clearly demonstrate just how disruptive the open-source news model is to events compared to the proprietary source model of the past. It also explains why there is a perception that news is far more opinion than it used to be—opinions can be branded and made proprietary far easier than trying to staff a team to compete with a community devoted to geoverification, for example.
Some long for the days of the 6pm newscast. This is most certainly a rose-colored view of the past. Those who recall this era remember being soothed by the packaging of the news. In hindsight, what we were watching was not a careful synthesis of fact-checked news but the opinions and interpretations of a small number of people with very limited expertise and even more limited information. It is only events like "Weapons of Mass Destruction" and others recently that have shown the limits of this process in the face of modern information, data, and analysis. I kept asking myself yesterday how different the WMD story would have been had it happened 20 years later. How would a generation of events have unfolded?
It is easy to cry "misinformation" but that is not what is going on. Misinformation is when actors deliberately falsify what is going on. Sharing something and having an opinion as just a random person isn't that. It is misinformation for institutions that trade on trust and truthfulness to put forth information that has not been vetted by a community or has not used all available sources. News gathering has come far enough now to know that the news is not simply what one actor said off the record confirmed by a person down the hall from that actor. The actors themselves have to deal with open-source information and make a case that stands up to the sources available to everyone.
Journalists then were exceedingly well-intentioned and did all they could at the time and acted with integrity as much as any profession. That is no different than what commercial software used to be—it was the right way and only way to make software at the time.
Disruption has many forms. We tend to focus on specific technologies and markets and the business impact. What we witnessed yesterday was a prime example of old-school versus modern reporting in a fluid, chaotic, and difficult situation. I believe it is incredibly important to take lessons from this and to adjust our view of what is reliable at the time.
- Toyota just revealed this all-electric truck at the Tokyo Auto Show. It's roughly the same length as a Model X.
- Squads is the leading multi-signature solution on Solana. Financial custody, access control, trading and settlement technologies have evolved throughout history, and blockchain allows us to take them to the next level. Running a business involves overseeing financial management, payroll, human resources, and engineering. In cryptocurrencies, operations extend to granting permissions, setting transaction limits, conducting on-chain voting, maintaining code permissions, implementing time delays, and more. Companies and internet-native organizations can leverage Squads’ multisig to accomplish all of these tasks.
Additionally, Squads recently launched SquadsX, a feature-rich web extension wallet designed for teams and institutions. For the first time, SquadsX allows groups to interact with decentralized applications and DeFi while maintaining enterprise-grade security. This will also be a game changer for financial institutions in terms of managing assets and reducing settlement times.
- This is deeply under appreciated
I don't really understand how something can be a public good when that thing is marking up its COGS (hardware + electricity + bandwidth) by 1,000x
- 👀 Yesterday VC firm announced they would buy and operate a U.S. health system
This health system would act as a “living lab” for new ideas, value-based business models, innovative care delivery models and GC’s portfolio companies - with the hope of building a blueprint for a better healthcare system for others to use.
The health system would be owned by a new company that is also building a technology ecosystem and slew of health system partnerships (20+ health systems already onboard, covering 15% of the U.S. population).
A key success factor is this new company is led by former CEO of Intermountain - meaning that they have the talent to operate the health system with a value-based framework in mind.
My prediction: 🤔
There will be an attempt to replace the legacy EHR vendors, by building a technology operating system (OS) from the ground up that is better suited for a value-based care world, supported by a modernized UI/UX that attracts clinicians who are unhappy with the current EHR experience.
A VC firm owning a health system: what do you think will happen?
- Farcaster sign ups are now permissionless!
Everyone can sign up at http://farcaster.xyz
Developers are now able to build an app, sign up users and read / write Hub data without any 3rd parties.
- Pinnacle of American capitalism
- Gm! I'm super excited to join Babylon Analytics!
- GM
- Hey everyone! Thrilled to be part of Developers.
- Hey everyone! Thrilled to be part of DeFi.
- Is there anything you wish your mobile carrier did that they don’t do because they are too big and slow?
- Holy cow
Take a photo of food, get accurate measurement of calories
Who is building a full product experience around this?
- The new 5G Hotspots are here
At a $249 price point
Building out the people's network
https://blog.hellohelium.com/discover-helium-mobile-hotspot/
- A new meta for NFTs?
Meta unveiled augments for Quest 3.... MR objects that can be tied to a single location.
Or basically, object permanence in MR
- The Rayban glasses are so interesting… Use camera as input for multimodal AI
when AirPods first came out, a bunch of people started to envision a world of ambient / passive computing
With the AirPods as an interface to the computer
but the problem with the AirPods is a) no camera b) headphones are antisocial
Glasses are not antisocial
So I think much easier to start to being passive computing vision to life via this form factor
As devices have gotten smaller, they have become less configurable
eg phones don't have command lines, but desktops do
this is even more true for embedded devices without screens
which therefore increases the importance of owning hardware + OS
Zuck very low key even alluded to outright search.... this could be one wedge for Meta to eventually make a much more aggressive move there
- Solana's new 1.16 release contains something really interesting
Confidential transfers via Token2022
This could be a game changer for certain Solana use cases
But how does it work?
- What are the best resources to understand apps, dollar flows, USDT, etc on Tron?
I regularly hear that there is a large user base of USDT users on Tron in emerging markets, but don't have a understanding of details. Would love to learn more!
- New week new opportunities...
- A strong US dollar may be sustainable for the US but it’s a problem for others. On a trade-weighted basis, the Japanese yen is now its weakest this century. Japan intervened to prop up the yen almost a year ago; the currency is even softer now
- Minted this free collectible in celebration of @orbapp.lens funding!
The era of everyday web3 social starts here!
LFG!🙌
- Who are your favorite FT room hosts? What do they discuss in their rooms with their key holders?
- Favorite features of new iPhone
1) gave away lightning cables! Fewer cords, especially in backpack
2) lighter weight + softer edges really do make it more delightful to hold
- TIL that there are over 1,000 pokemon
When I was a kid, there were 151 (if you counted Mew)
gotta catch 'em all!
https://www.ft.com/content/740778a8-6147-495c-9549-028ee2646646
- Paint the Lens Garden with @basepaint_xyz.lens
Live on https://basepaint.xyz for the next 24 hours
- why was bad eyesight not killed off in the evolutionary struggle? makes no sense
👀
- thinking about NFT collections
Feels like 10k PFP era is fading
What comes next?
consider Nike
They sell >500M pairs of shoes / year
What % of those are high end kicks, eg selling > $1000 price point? I’ll guess <1%
does mainstream Nike brand presence help or hurt high end kicks/sneakers business?
IMO mainstream brand is essential for high end line to exist as a true class of collectible
Global Brand awareness halo effect is real
I look forward to seeing *much* larger collections, with much more variety of price points and collect ability status
- Been thinking speculative capital in social things
A theory I've been mulling on is that it's impossible to achieve PMF without sybil resistance
The problem is, bots screw everything up. If bots are constantly extracting value from normies, it makes EV math wildly more negative for real users (relative to a counterfactual universe in which there are no bots)
There are many aspects of this problem, but at least two stand out
a) bots that extract value
b) lack of unique human identity
There are many ways to try to tackle these problems
The strongest class of solution is something like Worldcoin
There are less strong versions, such a zkCaptcha. The benefit of this approach is no custom hardware
And I'm sure there are others playing with other ideas on this spectrum
The other way to think about this class of problem is via SC constraints
Bot operators tend to operate on very short horizons. I suspect 99% of bots have a time horizon measured < 1 week
So if you can programmatically enforce longer holding, you can scare away bots
For example, consider FT, but where selling keys is only allowed on 1 day of the month, and some sort of LIFO mechanism is enforced (I don't think this particular mechanism would work, just using for illustrative purposes)
Anyhoo, I continue to be excited about the opportunities for social experiences around capital formation.
DePIN is the first large scale example of this to work, and I'm excited to figure out others
Hope to continue to see more unique approaches to dealing with both problem
- The 1960s "overpopulation is going to kills humanity, cause mass famine, and should cause us to halt progress and not have kids* thing" didnt quite pan out
I think in 100 years time, the most salient error will the effects of life extension
- The experience of using Phaver is great. I have met many interesting friends here. I will always use it and introduce it to my friends. Please continue to build and bring more surprises to everyone.
The future is coming!
- At first, I thought this not a good idea
But actually, I kind of like it
X attracts the 2-5% of people who really enjoy consuming content in written form. I suspect those people also tend to be fairly high powered knowledge workers
So could be a strong self-selection effect
- Can someone share a friend.tech invite code?
- Awesome conversation on Solana’s design philosophy
Blockchains shouldn’t be optimized for settlement
https://web3-with-a16z.simplecast.com/episodes/blockchain-architectures-modular-monolithic-solana-innovation-hardware-software-Mq81AsMI
- If weak subjectivity is ok in the context of POS chains in terms of not validating chain from genesis
Why is weak subjectivity not ok in the context of DAS and running full nodes on $500 computers with weak internet connections?
framed another way
you don't know if the roof over your head, or the car you drive, will explode and kill you. but there are social institutions that you *must* trust in order to function in the world
if you know there are thousands of independent companies all over the world running nodes, why do you need to run your own?
https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/11/25/proof-stake-learned-love-weak-subjectivity