mavia (@mavia) • Hey
mavia (@mavia) • Hey
Publications
- Who is ready to create an alliance in the main network?
- I am ready for battle!!!
- https://twitter.com/MaviaGame/status/1669749854715908097?s=20
- https://twitter.com/MaviaGame/status/1644754479877865474?s=20
- https://twitter.com/MaviaGame/status/1644392092599472129?s=20
- https://twitter.com/SkriceStudios/status/1643305774205272066?s=20
- Build your base with ease! Easy grab what you want to build with the menu select tool! https://twitter.com/MaviaGame/status/1642217765300846592?s=20
- 2023 the year of the ‘Blaze’ https://twitter.com/MaviaGame/status/1641855377846472704?s=20
- https://twitter.com/SkriceStudios/status/1641130602421452802?s=20
- https://twitter.com/MaviaGame/status/1639333760914292737?s=20
- https://twitter.com/SkriceStudios/status/1638956274741026830?s=20
- https://twitter.com/SkriceStudios/status/1638231497797935104?s=20
- Awesome! https://twitter.com/MaviaGame/status/1637144333215469568?s=20
- https://twitter.com/MaviaGame/status/1636781945202917391?s=20
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- https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1637332411141988355?s=20
- $ARB PRICE SCENARIOS 🦅🔵
Investor price* → Market Cap 85M - ARB $0.07
Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
@Arbitrum Thread 🧵 - Let's estimate 🧠
$ARB is launching in 6 days
Snapshot Date: Feb 6th 2023
Many active DeFi got this airdrop (12% of the total supply)
How much could $ARB be worth a few days after launch?
1/18
Arbitrum One is the biggest Ethereum Layer2 blockchain in the space, by TVL and market share
• Market share: 55%
• TVL: $3.7B
2/18
Today we will roughly try to estimate $ARB price valuation a few days after launch - after the dust settles. By using:
• Total & initial circulating supply
• Market Benchmarks
• Percentage airdropped
3/18
TOKENOMICS
• Team & Advisors: 26.94%
• Investors: 17.53%
• Treasury: 42.78%
• Airdrop to users: 11.62%
• Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs: 1.13%
4/18
TOKEN SUPPLY
• Total supply: 10B tokens (10,000,000,000)
• Circulating supply on 1st day: roughly 1.2B (1,200,000,000)
~12% of total supply
User airdrop is immediately unlocked. It's safe to assume that Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs will not enter the market right away
5/18
AIRDROP CRITERIA
• Conducting transactions during 2-9 distinct months
• Transaction frequency & interaction (4-100)
• Arbitrum Nova activity: 3-10 transactions
• Bridging to Arbitrum & Arbitrum Nova
• Transaction value: $10k-$250k
• Providing liquidity: $10k-$250k
6/18
🔗 Check your eligibility here: arbitrum.foundation
🚨 Careful with scam links, always get your link from @Arbitrum twitter
Now, let's try to make scenarios for $ARB's price 👇
7/18
FDV AND MARKET CAP MEANING
• Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) = total supply * token price
• Market cap = circulating supply * token price
With $ARB numbers:
FDV = 10B * token price
Market cap = 1.2B * token price
Token price = ❓
8/18
SPECULATING INVESTOR'S PRICE
According to Crunchbase, Offchain Labs raised 120M.
Investors are getting ~17% of the token supply, which is around 1.7B tokens.
If they bought 1.7B tokens for $120M, then that's around $0.07 per ARB. Pure speculation 👀
9/18
The best benchmarks for $ARB are Optimism and Polygon, but we can also work with other chains. Let's compare:
• Polygon $MATIC
• Optimism $OP
• Fantom $FTM
• Solana $SOL
10/18
Optimism $OP - the 2nd biggest Ethereum L2
• TVL: $950 million (DefiLlama)
• FDV: $10.8 billion
• Market cap: $800 million
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.08
11/18
Polygon $MATIC
• TVL: null.05 billion
• FDV: $11.8 billion
• Market cap: $10.7 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.18
12/18
Fantom $FTM
• TVL: $445 million
• FDV: null.4 billion
• Market cap: null.2 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~$0.14
13/18
Solana $SOL
• TVL: $245 million
• Market cap: $7.7 billion
• FDV: $10.9 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.09
14/18
Summarizing:
• $ARB with the FDV of $OP: null.08
• $ARB with the FDV of $MATIC: null.18
• $ARB with the FDV of $FTM: $0.14
• $ARB with the FDV of $SOL: null.09
15/18
If the market prices ARB at the same level as OP and MATIC (~10B FDV) then token price could be ~null.00
In contrast, for ARB price to be $3.00, its FDV needs to be 3 times the size of OP's.
Yes, Arbitrum has two times Optimism's TVL, but I don't know if that is enough.
16/18
PRICE SCENARIOS
Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
17/18
The first hours of trading will probably be a mess, so expect volatility.
These numbers are just a price iteration and comparison to what's already out there. I don't expect them to make sense the first day of trading.
18/18
LIQUIDITY
Remember Optimism partnered with Wintermute for liquidity on $OP launch; we should wait to see how Arbitrum does it. I think they will surely take care of initial liquidity.
At which price would you sell $ARB?
⚡️ Join me on Telegram for lightning-fast alpha notifications: https://t.me/OlimpioAlpha
👥 Also, lots of DeFi and Airdrop talk is going on inside Earndrop's server, join here: https://earndrop.io/discord
- https://twitter.com/trustfiorg/status/1637409875209666561?s=20
- Wassiegang Wassiegang
- 100K Crystals! https://go.pacer.gg/CNCiuFC1gxb
- https://twitter.com/zacodil/status/1637412200406024193?s=20
- **Wildflowers public mint started** 🌷🌷🌷
0,02 ETH for one flower
https://zora.co/collections/0xf2bf231b0636236b1a11b4e4b080505b9d15df93
To celebrate this I wanna make a raffle with 5 winners!
Like, Mirror, Collect and drop your ens/wallet to the comment
Deadline: March 9, 9:00 AM UTC
#lens #lenster #LMCC #NFT #raffle #giveaway
- https://twitter.com/StarkWareLtd/status/1637389450652053504?s=20
- https://twitter.com/ourZORA/status/1636459189303382018?s=20
- 💚 Lens RU creators, добро пожаловать в нашу семью!
Будем расти вместе.
https://lists.inlens.xyz/lists/844105419648073730
- Rate from 1 to 10.
- Rate from 1 to 10
- Earring made of stained millennial oak
- Earth 🌏
- Cheburator!
- How are u guys? https://twitter.com/arbitrum/status/1636352104913666050?s=20
- https://twitter.com/SkriceStudios/status/1636419557652054021?s=20
- https://twitter.com/SkriceStudios/status/1636057170549825544?s=20
- https://twitter.com/SkriceStudios/status/1635695284813541382?s=20
- https://twitter.com/SkriceStudios/status/1634970005455634434?s=20
- https://twitter.com/MaviaGame/status/1634607619389427713?s=20
- I want to make a desktop out of this. Yes or no?
- https://twitter.com/MaviaGame/status/1634245230437474305?s=20
- https://twitter.com/MaviaGame/status/1634607619389427713?s=20
- How do you like this Elon Musk?
CNC machine
- https://twitter.com/SkriceStudios/status/1630983739667775488?s=20
- https://twitter.com/SkriceStudios/status/1631346129743880212?s=20
- Who ate u today?
- https://twitter.com/MaviaGame/status/1629171802361499648?s=20
- https://twitter.com/SkriceStudios/status/1629896575446073345?s=20
- https://twitter.com/SkriceStudios/status/1627359860827344901?s=20
- https://twitter.com/lensprotocol_ru
https://t.co/uXzXDY1ofQ
- https://gho.xyz/