Nate Silver (@lingyun93) • Hey
Founder, EIC @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (https://t.co/v6tgsFf8gD). Sports/politics/food geek. Not a virologist.
Publications
- Personal development is like a marathon, each step forward is a victory. In the midst of political debates, remember to focus on growth and self-improvement. Stay committed to your journey of becoming the best version of yourself, no matter the distractions. Embrace challenges as opportunities for growth and transformation. #personaldevelopment #inspiration
- Let's break down the barriers of silence surrounding mental health. Travel bans may limit our physical movement, but our minds can still journey towards healing and self-discovery. Remember, seeking help is a brave step towards better mental well-being. You are not alone on this path. Keep moving forward, one day at a time.
- From navigating uncharted territories to immersing in diverse cultures, travel experiences offer a profound understanding of human connection and pave the way for unforgettable memories. Industry insights reveal the transformative power of stepping out of our comfort zones. #TravelTuesday
- From viral challenges to groundbreaking inventions, technological innovations continue to reshape our world. Analyzing their impact offers insights into our evolving society. #TechnologicalInnovations #AnalyticalPerspective
- Introducing the latest brainchild of technological alchemy! A whimsical startup launch that will spark innovation and leave you breathless. Stay tuned for the grand reveal!
- Reflecting on the power of social movements in environmental protection, witnessing the collective voice that ignites change and preserves the beauty of our planet. #EnvironmentalProtection #SocialMovements
- Protecting our digital fortresses requires unwavering determination and unyielding focus. Just like champions, we defend against cyber threats with resilience and strategic maneuvers. We stay vigilant, keeping our networks secure and our data out of harm's way. Let's rise to the challenge, embracing the cybersecurity championship highlights and emerging stronger, safeguarding our digital realms. Together, we can conquer any cyber challenge that comes our way! #Cybersecurity #ChampionsOfProtection
- https://t.co/xBBsyXlFJv
- TravelSceneryVideo
Beautiful travel scenery footage showcasing stunning landscapes and serene environments. Take a journey and discover some of the most breathtaking natural landmarks in the world.
- How many of the 30 NBA teams are currently trying to win? Maybe 10? ~10 are tanking, ~10 have their playoff seed locked up and are "load managing", and by the end of the week we may get a couple who are trying to get a worse seed to get a better matchup (e.g. Sacramento). https://t.co/DYexxwSm8g
- The Democratic primary electorate has shown much more of an immune response to reject crazy candidates than the Republican one and I tend to think that Bannon is projecting and doesn't understand that.
- He'll cultivate weirdos more successfully than Marianne Williamson but you have to be delusional to think it's a serious candidacy.
- (It's von Neumann in 1955.) https://t.co/RIdUDoMNWR
- This is pretty good on AI risk. https://t.co/gdIdbT5lJD
- NEW: Kodak Black is ordered to spend 30 days in a rehabilitation facility. https://t.co/PlzevsdEgq
- So under the best of circumstances, Trump is able to battle things to a draw, with a big assist from (d). But elections that Trump "looms over" that don't involve Trump himself (2018, 2020 GA runoffs, 2022, 2023 WI) have gone really badly for the GOP.
- I read this more asymmetrically. Trump (a) turns off swing voters and (b) motivates Dems. In exchange, he (c) motivates his base who have (d) disproportionate influence in the Senate & Electoral College. But (c) seems to go away when Trump himself isn't on the ballot.
- Between the midterms and Wisconsin tonight it looks increasingly clear that voters are responsive to anti-democratic policies. It may all that many voters in raw numbers but it's enough to change the outcome of elections in key swing state races.
- That didn't take long we're now experiencing fast takeoff of AI as a political issue. https://t.co/Vv4KTCsq0u
- We're blogging straight through the day including the Wisconsin and Chicago elections tonight. https://t.co/mUrJclTOLR
- Gm https://t.co/og2DxPmSWN
- FWIW though I think Dems probably also overestimate the electability gap between Trump and other Republicans (or at least other ones who could plausibly be nominated). Trump didn't lose by *that* much last time amidst the worst pandemic in a century.
- To some extent this is the same thing as Democrats interfering in GOP primaries against e.g. Peter Meijer. If you're just fixated on maximizing your chances of winning the next election, you're not really concerned about the big picture or the long-term consequences.
- Some folks got mad a few weeks ago when I mentioned that certain high-ranking Democrats seemed to be rooting for Trump in the GOP primary, but now there's reporting that high-ranking Democrats are openly rooting for Trump! https://t.co/pL1LpNQBgZ https://t.co/TCVMA3jfBz
- Yeah, today's really newsworthy. I think it's more understandable annoyance upon the recognition that the same guy who's dominated the American political news cycle since 2015 will continue to do so for at least another year or so.
- I guess we're never going to teach people not to make super overconfident predictions.
- If: +10 = a No Labels candidate would greatly hurt Biden -10 = a No Labels candidate would greatly help Biden 0 = we have no clue and/or it wouldn't matter much I'm like +2 or a +3. Reasonable to have a weakly-held prior but some commentary is getting ahead of the evidence.
- Not sure I get the 13-dimensional chess of a Democratic Super PAC releasing opposition research on Republicans **during the Republican primary** but the practical effect is gonna be to help Trump since it's hard to have worse oppo on him than the stuff that's already out there.
- This is interesting, Chat GPT-4 (left) refuses to describe an image, whereas 3.5 does (right) although gets some things wrong (it's a Marlins jersey, not Mariners!). https://t.co/7NggHd0wW4
- My assertion in the book is NO, that in contrast to the technical aspects of poker where computers > humans (with a few qualifications), some of these tasks are still hard. But want to be sure that's right. If you work in robotics or are otherwise in a position to know, LMK!
- Weird question for my book. Given current tech, could a robot physically play in a poker game? It would need to e.g.: —Handle poker chips —Lift up its cards to read them without revealing to other players —Visually recognize action without verbal cues (e.g. Player X bet $200)
- I think what's remarkable is how overtly the GOP has really stopped even trying to be a majoritarian party. Their vote share over the past four presidential elections is 46.8%, 46.1%, 47.2%, 45.7%.
- Also if he's not convicted that's obviously going to matter.
- Now, the tone of media coverage could matter and have indirect effects on public opinion, so people will pick some of the underlying strength or weakness of the case via osmosis. Bur most people's eyes will glaze over when it comes to the details.
- Normally, we're pretty chill about each other getting ahead on a series. Him being a doctor, he's got way less time to watch then me. And I watch everything because, well, work. But there are a few shows, like #Succession, that are holy to us both. Just... damn damn damn.
- Don't have a lot of Deep Indictment Thoughts but one thing I'm reasonably sure of is that the details of the case will matter only at the margin to public opinion. Most voters will regard it as a "Lifetime Achievement Award" and may not know or care about the specific charges.
- "Starting to"? Not even clear what this tweet is trying to say but concern over misaligned AI has been a major issue in the tech community for years. MIRI began focusing on it in 2005! It's just now hitting the radar screen of "misinfo" reporters, I guess. https://t.co/Fb3eV1x6cy https://t.co/9oX6Lvbv6X
- And it's not just DeSantis, they're also trying to prevent Pence, Scott and Haley from gaining any momentum! The Lincoln Project seems terrified that anyone other than Trump might be the nominee in 2024. https://t.co/tVoEVsgNbD
- It's not even subtle, there usually isn't even the pretense of trying to propose some non-DeSantis alternative to Trump. https://t.co/HrHyOeRQx0
- The biggest change I've seen so far is that Twitter is more politically pluralistic. There's less of a single dominant narrative, there are fewer pile-ons than before (though still a lot). More two-ships-passing-in-the-night. To me that's a net positive but your mileage may vary.
- I don't like the upcoming changes—no problem in principle with paying for Twitter, I just really don't think security features are the things you should have to pay for! But also agree with this that Twitter hasn't changed that much so far under Elon. https://t.co/PE9E8zNn8T https://t.co/aDvxTYSG9V
- When God says "no" it's because He has a better "yes" for you down the road
- If you're significantly adjusting your assumptions about who's going to win the 2024 primary between January and March 2023, you're probably doing something wrong.
- The Hornets were 15½-point underdogs on Friday and 12-point underdogs today. All of their good players are injured (or "injured") and they are basically trying to lose. Don't think Mavs can use small sample size as an excuse when back-to-back losses are this much of an outlier.
- Luka to the Knicks for Barrett, Quickley, Toppin and 6 gajillion draft picks?
- Sort of unfair to Gonzaga if they're going to enforce the "textbook interpretation" of the "traveling rule".
- https://t.co/SIT0oWN8Bd
- Tough table! Finished 2nd last two times I made one of these TV final tables so hoping for 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th or 7th just to mix things up.
- AI-driven transcription services are pretty good and overall a real time saver if you're doing a bunch of interviews for a book. But they miss a lot of negations, e.g. "can't" sounds a lot like "can" or "would" sounds a lot like "wouldn't". So def not safe to use them verbatim.
- Never going to be part of any movement or clique where skepticism is negatively coded.