AnimalFun (@10btc) • Hey
1. Use Lens to keep all your precious things forever.
2. Animals can't act
3. Wish you happy everyday
Publications
- Lens broke a new record: over 200,000 Profiles minted. 👏 How are you planning to celebrate it, anon? 🥳
- getting drunk af in my mini dress. Loves it. Killing it. 💁🏻♀️
- 🌏 Top 10 Destinations of 2023 🌏
#9📍Benin 🇧🇯
Ghana, Togo, Benin... My first encounter with West Africa and a two-week journey that was a true traveler's delight. Although Ghana and Togo were quite fascinating, Benin stood out. Perhaps because I felt the best there, thanks to our honorary consul Uroš Popović, whom we met and who guided us through the history and customs of Benin as one of the biggest collectors of African art.
We attended a Voodoo ceremony, entirely by chance, a genuine authentic ritual, not staged for tourists, visited the python temple, a village on the water, and an airplane on the beach... Many things that can only be seen here in the whole world.
Benin is a small country, and I would recommend combining it with some of the neighboring ones if you plan to visit. 5-7 days will be enough for the main tourist attractions, and the recommendation is to spend the most time in Cotonou, the largest city in Benin. Many think Cotonou is the capital, but it is actually Porto Novo, of which only a small number of people have heard.
Two interesting private anecdotes before and after this trip were when my travel companion Igor called the bank to unlock his card for use in Benin. After a few attempts by the clerk to understand which country he was going to, she said, "Okay, when you go to that Benu..." 😁 And the other was that during our stay, one of the questions on a quiz show was about the location of Cotonou, and you wrote to me that you knew the exact answer because of my stories.
Although I chose to include mostly photos of myself in this series, the last one in the post is a girl with bread because I know that her story left the biggest impression on you. 🌅🌊💛
- Drummond Castle Gardens,Scotland 🏴
#nature #scenery #castles
- $300 double down
#bytes #blackjack
- The emotions shared between animals and humans are like a beautiful song; they require no words, just a glance, a smile, to convey love and care. This pure connection of emotions binds us, helping us better appreciate the wonders of life.
#animals #horse #beautiful
- Hotel California
Pencil drawing converted to a retro style with #ai
- 关于对2023年周期的一些思考：
最近的行情真的磨人，完全没又任何波动，好像当时大饼在15000的时候也没有现在这么磨人。
之前回测了下之前的几轮周期，感觉还是挺相似的，如果是按照之前的几轮周期来看的话，从现在开始到明年的4月份可能都不会太好过。
当然，我并不是悲观，也并不一定是4月份之前都不好过，我们接下来可以看看之前的周期都发生了什么，然后我们自己也知道自己现在在周期的哪个位置。
虽然我个人也不会特别追求刻舟求剑，但是如果看前几个周期的走势，还是可以可以出来一些端倪，我们在周期的哪个位置，以及接下来周期要往哪里走。
一：可以先看下2015年的周期情况：图1
我们不去完全的刻舟求剑，但是这一个月的交易量和价格波动和现在确实有点像。
在来看看接下来周期的走势：图2
从这个横盘走过来以后，基本上牛市其实已经开始了，虽然说也会有大的回调，但是基本上大趋势是向上的。
当然，一个周期并不能说明什么，下面来看看2019年的那个周期：
二：2019年的周期：图3
可以看到图三的周期走势和2023年是比较类似的，也是在年初左右突破了底部区域，然后开始行情走好，当时bnb开始了ieo，然后跌破ma200后，有两次横盘，然后就迎来了312。
312是一个典型的黑天鹅事件，不能把它放在周期的大趋势里面，当然，其实还有一个事情可以仔细的思考下，为什么疫情1月份就开始，然后到3月份才开始引起了资本市场的波动呢？
到底是周期决定了事件，还是事件决定了周期？哪一个因素更大呢？
我个人其实偏向于周期决定事件的，312大概率是一个导火索而已，如果没有疫情，可能还会有别的东西。
那么312之后发生了什么呢？看看接下来周期的走势：图4
可以看到312之后，也是一样，虽然说也有大的回调，但是大趋势是向上走的，再也没有回头。
那么看过前两轮周期的走势能给现在的周期走势有什么启发吗？
我觉得霍华德马克斯的一个观点很有道理，就是：我们可以不用去预测未来，但是我们可以知道自己在周期的哪个位置，就大概知道接下来我们要去向何处。
三：2023年的周期；图5
可以看到，今天的周期走势和2019年是有一些类似的，虽然说不是完全一样，但是能看出来和2015，2019这两个年份类似。
当然，我们不知道会不会还有类似“312”的事情发生，但是大概率真正的熊市大底已经过去了，现在的阶段在长周期的阶段来说就是类似于2019年-2020年蛰伏的那段时间，因为2020年是4月开始行情恢复，所以我们就假设也是一样的，所以最多熬到明年4月，可能就离曙光不远了。
结论：
第一：按照四年的大周期来说，这一轮周期的大底应该已经过去，也就是15000左右了，并且拉长事件来看，可能今年1月那次突破代表了长周期的牛市已经开启了。
第二：2023年和2015，2019年是类似的，都是从熊市大底走出来以后反弹，然后再次跌破ma200。
从之前的经验来看，在跌破ma200后，会有一个不错的建仓时间，不求着能买到最低，能覆盖底部区域就不错了。
接下来几个月可能还是有点难熬，也不知道会不会有类似312的黑天鹅事件出现，但是曙光已经离我们越来越近了。
从现在开始到btc减半之前，可能是大周期建仓的不错时间，虽然说大底已经过去，但是如果在那时候没有买入的投资者可能在这个时间短买入会是一个不错的时机。
第三：2024年大饼减半后保持乐观态度
从前几轮周期来看，确实比较类似的，这一轮我相信也会有类似的地方，所以我个人从长期来说，还是保持乐观的，虽然这几个月可能会比较难熬，但确实我们离牛市越来越近了。
以上就是我自己的一些思考，不一定对，我个人还是保持乐观，也许悲观者是正确的，但是我相信乐观者最后还是能获得更大的成功，总之一起加油吧
- Every seashell possesses a unique beauty.🐚
- 现阶段关于stark net的一些情况和思考：
今天在社群内部做了一场关于starknet的分享，正好想整理下内容也在推特上发一下。
一：starknet主网情况：
Stark net主网总tvl：2776万美元（来自defiliama）
10个协议
最大协议的锁仓量：890万美元
整体协议tvl偏小，协议偏少
二：用户情况：
Stark net全网总用户：183万（统计于2023/8/16）
Argent钱包用户量：125.8万
Braavos钱包用户量：50.8万
使用起来的话，确实每一笔交互的gas在减少，速度在提高，但是关于stark的数据比较少，统计的也不是很完全。
三：Starkware官方关于空投的信息
2022年11月16号发布文章宣布stark token部署在以太坊主网：https://medium.com/starkware/starknet-token-is-deployed-on-ethereum-f27f0000b00c…
2022年7月13号确定了代币的分配：代币已在链外铸造。具体细节可以看下文 https://medium.com/@starkware/part-3-starknet-token-design-5cc17af066c6…
重点：官方在2022年11月官方文档里面明确了代币的发行以及代币分配计划
我觉得最关键的点就是阅读他的有关代币经济学的三篇文章来了解他们的代币经济学。
四：Strk代币分配信息：
•17%- stark ware投资人
•32.9%-核心贡献者
•50.1%-基金会-用途如下：
•9%社区条款：曾经使用过starkex的用户，但是快照是2022年6月1号
•12%开发资助
•10%战略储备
•2%捐款
•8.1%未分配：这部分代币由社区决定（这部分可能是空投）
五：关于可能空投的思考：
1，假设starknet空投，那么有可能空投的量是8.1%，也就是8.1亿代币
2，假设2022年11月代币部署在主网上，然后一年的锁定期，那么2023年的11月有可能开始释放代币
但是有两个风险点：
1，官方的代币经济学里面没有空投的选项
2，并且在11月有可能就开始逐步释放代币
六：关于和其他L2对比：
1：和arb对比：
融资：1.43亿美元 统计于8/14号
总量：100亿
空投比例：11.62%，11亿6千2百万代币
空投地址：62万，快照时候的全网地址：237万
排名36
当前价格1.14（统计于2023年8/14号）
当前流通量：12.75亿枚代币
流通市值：14.54亿美元
全流通市值：114亿美元
2：和op对比：
融资：1.785亿美元
总量：42.9亿
空投比例：总比例19%，第一次5空投%/2.1亿代币，第二空投1100万代币
空投地址：24.8万地址，快照时候的全网地址：
排名：42
当前价格：1.57
当前流通量：7.16亿
流通市值：11.2亿美元
全流通市值：67.31亿美元
七：Starknet发币的赔率计算
starknet：
融资：2.61亿美元
2022年5月25号估值80亿美元
代币总量：100亿
空投比例：假设空投量是8.1%
假设估值80亿，100亿总量，那么单价就是0.8u
假设空投8.1%，就是8.1亿代币，空投的总价值就是6.48亿美元。
假设stark=arb的fdv，代币单价=1.14u
假设stark的fdv=arb，那么空投代币的美元价值=9.234亿美元
其实通过这个数据，starknet的赔率是可以算出来的。
按照逻辑来说，starknet的fdv是不太可能低于arb的，所以我个人倾向于，假设真的有8.1%的代币总量是空投的话，那么可能大概不会低于9亿美元。
这么看的话，其实赔率还是蛮高的。
八：关于交互策略的一些思考
目前梳理了一些点：
主要从defiliama的协议里面挑选排名靠前的协议，以dex和借贷协议为主，目前只有4个dex和一个借贷协议可以用，因为其他协议tvl太小。
因为看不到全网用户情况，所以没办法制定特别科学的策略
可以在：https://chaineye.tools/stark-net-wallet…查看自己的排名，然后根据排名大概制定策略。
然后依旧可以分为低保号，精品号，但是由于数据现在是黑盒，只能是自己去测试什么样的数据能到前10%，20%等等
可以每周去交互一些协议，保证每周活跃，每个月的活跃
为了安全，还是推荐使用tvl高的协议去交互
九：如果没有全网用户数据怎么制定自己的策略？
可以通过： https://chaineye.tools/stark-net-wallet…来查看自己的排名。
目前我自己测试的是，50tx大概可以排进前15%的用户。
650u的交易额大概可以排进前30%。
如果想要精确的数据，需要自己去不断测试得知自己的排名，只能是通过排名的结果来制定不同的策略。
十：我个人总结的一些交互风险点：
做lp的磨损很大，因为协议的问题，没有单币LP的选项，如果做lp只能是双币，这样就会有磨损
不建议去刷大额，因为协议太新，本金更重要，如果你非要去刷，那就做借贷协议的存取
钱包风险：建议记下来每一个钱包地址，因为你没有钱的地址会被隐藏掉，并且找不到
不要往协议里面长期存钱，风险较大，比如eralend情况，即便是小额交互也是快进快出
安全是最重要的，不要用有损失本金的可能性去赌一个空投
十一：关于现阶段开始刷是否会晚的问题：
因为大多数协议都是阿尔法阶段，每一个协议都有风险提示，明显还是早期，其实之所以觉得晚是因为每一个人都在说，但是消息的来源没有被证实。
但确实有一个风险点：2022年11月的官方文档说代币锁定一年，不知道是否今年11月会解锁，所以我觉得确实有一定的风险被反撸，因为不知道会不会解锁，但如果按照理性思考的话，只要官方没有消息，还是要参与。
十二：关于赔率和风控
相对于zk来讲，stark有更大的不确定性，因为官方已经明确了代币的经济模型，有可能被反撸，但是如果真的有8.1%的代币量空投的话，那么也是一笔不小的收益。
交互的成本相对于zk来讲更大，因为每一笔交互的费用更高。
从融资和估值的角度来说，赔率足够大，并且不是很卷。
由于协议和网络都还在阿尔法版本，所以安全性需要注意，并且每一个dapp的网页都有风险提示。
总结：
总的来说，无论是zk还是stark，虽然说看起来很卷，但是作为防守的角度，还是需要去交互的，毕竟这个项目这么多的融资，这么高的估值，如果不去交互的话，其实踏空的风险还是很大的。
即便是现阶段有很多人说为时已晚，或者是觉得太贵的等等，其实都是借口，最好的方法其实是仓位管理，上是可定要上的，就是你要上多少的问题。
以上是我自己的一些思考，也不一定对，欢迎交流。
- What to do the next 7 days?
We've got you covered. 🎁
Stay tuned @orbapp.lens 👀
- Todays colour palette - mermaid world
- #nftart #orrvan2 #lenster #lensview #fanart
If you like these artworks, please like, mirror and collect to let more people see them 🎉
if you like fanart series, check it out here⬇️
https://lensview.xyz/atlas/orrvan2.lensT1676384766080
- Whats the right amount to set a collect fee? doing some research while on-boarding a creator fren. What do you feel is good to set as your first collect fee?
- Time management is key – set priorities and stick to them!
- Being busy does not always mean real work. The object of all work is production or accomplishments and to either of these ends there must be forethought, system planning, intelligence, and honest purpose, as well as perspiration. Seeming to do is not doing.
- I always wanted to be a stay-at-home dad making art, making movies.
- BACK, n. That part of your friend which it is your privilege to contemplate in your adversity
- What is true of the individual will be tomorrow true of the whole nation if individuals will but refuse to lose heart and hope.
- Finally finished reading that book I've been working on for weeks. It was such a great feeling of accomplishment and the ending was well worth the wait.
- The world is a looking-glass, and gives back to every man the reflection of his own face. Frown at it, and it in turn will look sourly at you; laugh at it, and with it, and it is a jolly, kind companion.
- Had a random dance party with my kids in the living room today. It was a great way to let loose and have some fun during a stressful week. #familytime
- My idea of heaven is a great big baked potato and someone to share it with.
- In itself, homosexuality is as limiting as heterosexuality: the ideal should be to be capable of loving a woman or a man either, a human being, without feeling fear, restraint, or obligation.
- I accidentally sent a text message meant for my best friend to my boss instead. Luckily, it was just a funny meme and didn't cause any trouble.
- I went to the hair salon to get a trim, but the hairstylist misunderstood me and gave me a completely different hairstyle. It took a while to get used to, but I actually ended up liking it!
- I'm trying to get in the habit of, you know, picking up a book and learning how to write my feelings down, not my feelings but my thoughts, about things, and hopefully I'll moving toward the writing and directing thing soon.
- Went to the gym for the first time in months and forgot to bring a towel. Had to walk home with sweat stains all over my shirt. #fitnessFail
- I routinely never discuss my marriage. It's nice to have things in my life that are totally mine.
- Got lost in the city and stumbled upon a hidden street full of local art and music... definitely worth getting lost for!
- Accidentally spilled coffee all over my white shirt this morning... so much for looking professional at the office! #coffeefail
- In every case, the remedy is to take action. Get clear about exactly what it is that you need to learn and exactly what you need to do to learn it. BEING CLEAR KILLS FEAR. Make it thy business to know thyself, which is the most difficult lesson in the world.
- You have to discover when you're inadequate to be funny and you don't know you're inadequate when you're a kid.
- Petra, Jordan is an ancient city that was carved entirely into rock and it's one of the new Seven Wonders of the World! #travel #funfact
- The Venice Simplon-Orient-Express train takes you on a luxurious ride across Europe and it's been in operation since 1883! #travel #funfact
- I don't believe in social equality, and they know it.
- When I go out, my cat always sits in the window watching me go, and then when I come home she's always so happy to see me! #petstories
- SCRIBBLER, n. A professional writer whose views are antagonistic to one's own.
- Did you know that the world's most expensive ice cream sundae was created with 5 grams of edible 23-karat gold? #FoodFacts
- Did you know that the world's most expensive pizza was created with truffles, caviar and 24-karat gold flakes? #FoodFacts
- The architecture of our future is not only unfinished the scaffolding has hardly gone up.
- Did you know that the world's largest hamburger weighed 881 pounds and was over 8 feet in diameter? #FoodFacts
- O, woe is me, To have seen what I have seen, see what I see!
- I saw many people who had advanced heart disease and I was so frustrated because I knew if they just knew how to do the right thing, simple lifestyle and diet steps, that the entire trajectory of their life and health would have been different.
- My pet snake loves to sunbathe in the window and take naps in his cozy little hideaway! #petstories
- My pet snake loves to sunbathe in the window and take naps in his cozy little hideaway! #petstories
- Slowly but surely, we are acquiring that famous culture of democracy, which is our objective.
- ！When I went to the beach today, a little boy gave me a conch shell! #beachlife
- "Working with a team can be difficult at times, but it's worth it for the results you can achieve. #TeamWork"
- Death is a challenge. It tells us not to waste time... It tells us to tell each other right now that we love each other.